Three years ago, Marty Shottenheimer led the Chargers to a 14-2 regular season, only to put up a stink bomb in the divisional playoff game at home against the New England Patriots. That offseason he was fired. Really, a coach was fired after a 14-2 season. I was one of the supports, in fact, because he had proven time after time that he could not get it done in the playoffs. This Chargers team was poised for deep playoff runs. So we moved on.
Yesterday, Nate Kaeding carried in a run of 63 straight field goals made of 40 yards or less, and he missed two straight from that distance. From 63 in a row, to two straight misses, not to mention another miss of over 50. The Chargers lost by three, needing only one of those three for at least a tie.
Can we ever trust Kaeding again? His rookie year, he missed a game winner in the same stadium against the same team, and then missed another against the Patriots in Shottenheimer's last game, however this was 54 yards with the clock running. It was a prayer to begin with. The truth of the matter, is Nate Kaeding has yet to make a clutch field goal in the playoffs, and he singularely, could have helped the Chargers win yesterday.
To say the team deserved to win, would not be fair, but they still could have, and that is hard to live with. I really like Nate Kaeding, he seems like a quality person on and off the field. He has been a great kicker year after year, but can he help us get to our goal? I don't know. I also don't know what the alternative is, but that was a sad performance by a very good kicker.
I was charged with writing a post about the most intriguing stat for this week’s upcoming Divisional Playoff game. However, that just doesn’t satisfy my appetite, and probably not yours, so I decided to stretch that out. I thought about the Union Tribune and their “By the Numbers” column they do every day and thought I would work with that and my CPA side. Today we are going to be doing the math on the Chargers vs Jets matchup.
1 – This is the number of players Darrel Revis can cover on any given play. That may be enough to shut down some passing teams, but not the Chargers. If he is covering Vincent Jackson as everyone expects, that still leaves the deep threat in Malcolm Floyd, and Antonio Gates in the middle of the field.
13.3 – Chargers yards per catch, which is the best in the NFL. Granted, the Jets have the top pass defense in the NFL, but they do this with constant blitzing with the support of Revis shutting down the top receiver on each team. The Chargers meanwhile, have done a tremendous job of picking up blitzes, and the best way to beat a blitzing team is to go deep, or hit the screen. The Chargers not only boast the best yards per catch in the league, but they have Darren Sproles and Ladanian Tomlinson who excel at screen plays.
10 – Chargers turnover differential, also top in the AFC.
-2 – The jets turnover differential, and no matter how good Mark Sanchez looked last week with his 15 pass attempts, he will be asked to do more this week. I am impressed with his performance in his first playoff game, but the odds are against him to do it again.
41.1 – The difference between the Charger’s passer rating (103.1) and the Jets (62). The Jets have the 31st ranked passing attack in the NFL. That equals one dimensional offense, which is not the name of the game anymore. The creed used to be, defense and a run game wins in the playoffs, but now it is balanced offense. The Chargers run defense has been less than stellar, but it hasn’t been the one dimensional offenses that beat the Chargers. They will make sure the Jets won’t be in a position to win if Sanchez only throws the ball 15 times.
-35 – The number of sacks the Chargers defense recorded, 10th in the NFL. That includes 32 over the last 13 games.
That all adds up to 28.4, which is the Chargers average points per game. I don’t know if they get there this week, but they will have enough offense to beat a Jets team that can struggle to put points on the board.
The Chargers strolled into Dallas today carrying a 7 game winnings streak, and a 15 game streak of wins in the month of December. Wade Phillips apparently felt the pressure, facing his old team, and the Demons of December in Dallas, when he handed off his red flag after using his 3rd timeout. He basically knew that he was not capable of holding that flag knowing that he couldn't use it. What does this say about your team Cowboys fans? To me it says that its time for a new coach. This coming from a team lead by Norv Turner, and that's the NFL for you folks.
On the heels of 6 straight victories, the San Diego Chargers head to Cleveland, Ohio to take on the dismal Browns, who haven’t won at home all year. Not that they are exactly better on the road, but their only win of the season came at Buffalo. This is a team that lost to the Detroit Lions, by giving up 38 points. The Browns have scored 7 points or less 7 times this season, and their only win was powered behind 6 points. Meanwhile, the Chargers have scored 21 points or more in 17 straight games.
Here are some of the key matchups for the game:
Ladanian Thomlinson vs. Browns front 7
LT has been improving every week since his slow start. He has yet to put up really big numbers, but most of that is because he gets pulled late in blowouts. Last week was the first time I can remember the Chargers O Line getting a great push. LT was getting hit three yards out instead of behind the line. The Browns rank 31st against the run, and now they are without their best lineman, Shuan Rogers.
Charger Receivers vs Brown’s secondary
The Browns rank last again, in yards after the catch, with 7.2, and the Chargers rank 5th in the league for the same category, averaging 5.8 yards per catch. Vincent Jackson has been pretty quite the last few weeks, but he is too talented to keep down for long. While defenses focus on stopping him, the rest of the receivers have benefited, and will continue to do so if that is the game plan.
Chargers vs. Cleveland weather
The truth is, Cleveland can’t really match up with the Chargers anywhere, except maybe special teams, so there is little point in debating which matchups are best. The real foe this week will be the weather. Snow is expected on Friday, but Saturday and Sunday look clear. The temperatures should be around 37, though, and if it is windy, that could limit the Chargers passing offense. The weather may put the pressure on the Chargers’ running game, but even then, the Chargers have the edge against a very bad Browns offense
Antonio Cromartie vs The San Diego Police Department
Looks like the Chargers already won this matchup, with the San Diego Police Department dropping the case against Cromartie that he hit a man over the head with a champagne bottle. The spokesperson stated that there was not enough evidence to prove a crime was committed.
After a less than thrilling victory last week over the Raiders, the Chargers do have some good things to talk about. It felt a bit like 2007, with the Chargers scoring a TD on the opening drive with ease, Merriman getting two sacks, LT two touchdowns, and Cromartie pulling in and INT. The downside of that game is that there is no way the Chargers beat the Giants this week if they play on the same par.
The Giants meanwhile have looked terrible for three straight weeks. They have given up 92 points in those three games. Things don’t look much better for them with the Chargers high octane passing game coming into town with sunny skies on the forecast.
With that being said, let’s look at the key matchups for this week’s game.
Osi Umenyiora (DE) vs. Marcus McNeill (LT)
McNeill looked like the long awaited answer to left tackle problems in his rookie year, but has since raised as many questions as solutions. He is huge and shows flashes of dominance, but not consistently. Umenyiora is one of the top young defensive ends in the league, and should make life difficult on McNeill. The Giants pass defense has been horrendous the last three weeks and the only chance they have of stopping the Chargers is up front with the pass rush. If McNeill shuts down Umenyiora, Rivers could have a big day.
Justin Tuck (DE) vs. Jeromey Clary
If you can’t tell, I think the Giants pass rush is the key to this whole game. If Rivers has time, the Chargers receivers will shred this defense. The pass rush was the Giants key to their Super Bowl run two years ago, and will be the key again this Sunday. The Chargers running game is secondary to the passing game, and the Giants secondary is questionable at best. With clear weather on the horizon, the Chargers need to protect Rivers and good things will happen. Tuck and Umenyiora are both studs and capable of getting to the QB, so this is a big challenge for the Chargers front line.
Kevin Burnett and/or Stephen Cooper vs. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw
The Chargers run defense was the obvious hole to start the season, but has improved slightly over the last few weeks. The squad gave up 321 yards, but on 99 carries, which comes out to 3.24 yards per carry. The Giants passing game is dangerous but has faltered because of a lack of run support. Tim Dobbins was playing great filling in for Burnett, but gets injured just in time for Burnett’s return. Hopefully he is feeling well and the two inside linebackers can control the run. Jacbobs hasn’t been running like he used to, maybe he isn’t 100%, maybe he is satisfied after getting his payday. Either way, the Giants are going to have to open up the run game in order to keep pace with the Chargers’ offense.
Today, the San Diego Chargers cut Chris Chambers to make room on the roster for a replacement Linebacker. With backup Tim Dobbins going down with a knee injury, the Chargers need to find a fill in. It really is a shame, about Dobbins of course, because he has been looking really good while playing for the injured Kevin Burnett. Hopefully he did enough to work his way back into the lineup once he is healthy again.
Back to Chambers, though, I honestly couldn’t be happier. Last week was kind of the last straw for me, with all of the dropped passes. I used to think of him as the guy who caught everything and a steal for a second round pick, but these days he couldn’t catch the swine flu if he hung out in the Duke locker room. I can’t count the number of times I have screamed at the TV that Malcom Floyd should be getting the reps instead. Though, if you count the amount of drops Chambers has, that is probably the number. From now on we should see a good dose of Rivers to Floyd, at least a higher prescription than before.
Whether it was to make room or not, this fan is happy to see him gone. The next question is, does Craig BUSTer Davis get some reps, or is he next on the block?
Here we go, its week 5, and Oz and I are running through each NFL game to pick the winners against the spread.
Yes, sir, another week of NFL football. A side note: as much crap as I talk about baseball, I love playoff baseball. Good times. One caveat: I'm sick, so I won't be spending much time agonizing over writing something substantial. Sorry everyone.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9):
I like this game for two reason, well actually three. First of all, the Ravens are overrated. For two or three weeks now everyone has been talking them up like the best team in the league. We all know now that the Chargers aren't really that good, so who did they beat? Kansas City, Cleveland and Atlanta. Their defense is not very good, but everyone gives them the benefit of the doubt because they used to be good. I complained about this last week and was right when the Patriots won. When a team is overrated, their lines are inflated. At the same time, the Bengals are probably a bit underrated because they have been so bad for so long. The third reason seems to be escaping me, we will come back.
Bengals +9
The Ravens are good, but they're still getting too much credit for what they did in weeks 1-3. The Bengals are better than people think. That being said, they're not that good.
Bengals +9
Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6):
Gross, just gross. Who wants to watch this game? I dont even know what to say here except both teams suck, and I would normally bet against a team that I consider the worst team in the league that already traded away a star player, but they are playing one of those "lets fire our OC a week before the season" teams and I feel like teams always bounce back after losing a Braylen Edwards type guy. He was the big name that dropped a bunch of shit and probably brought everyone down. I don't care if they even play this game, let alone who wins. What I care about is the fact that Braylen tried to punch Lebron's friend, Cleveland is getting revenge.
Browns +6
The Bills suck, but the Browns are far below them in the worst team in the league category. They're demoralized. They blow. They have no weapons on offense and no one likes their own coach.
BUFFALO -6
Thats a good point, I would change, but I just have a feeling here.
Washington @ Carolina (-3.5):
Is Washington as bad as we think? Clinton Portis is apparently not on the injury report which would suggest he is more healthy than before. Meanwhile, I have picked the Panthers every week and lost, which usually means I would finally pick against them in their first cover. Not this time, the Panthers SHOULD be the better team here, especially at home where they went 8-0 last year. No one expects shit out of them, so they have nothing to lose...except the game itself.
Panthers -3.5
Did the schedule makers decide that there weren't going to be any interesting games this weekend, or are there just that many bad teams in the NFL? I'll take a shot on a healthy Portis.
Washington +3.5
Both, its funny you say this here, because they don't get any better, I think there are a total of two interesting games this week, NE vs Denver and Baltimore vs Cincy (thats terrible that this is one of the only two interesting games)
Pittsburgh @ Detroit (+10.5)
Pittsburgh is good, and everyone gave up on them too fast after two straight losses. Their defense is not the same without Polamalu, and I am not convinced their running game is ok just because they ran all over the Chargers. However, Detriot is not good. Kevin Smith, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are all questionable. Chances are they all play, but they aren't practicing hard, and its not exactly like they are all vets used to playing with each other. The Steelers have something to prove, less than last week, but hopefully they learned their lesson at Cincy. The Lions have lost by 18, 14 and 24 so far, why can't the Steelers do that? Detroit is overrated because they finally won...really, I did just say the Lions are overrated, bet you never thought you would hear that.
Pittsburgh -10.5
The Lions are so overrated that they're underrated. What? That doesn't even make any sense. You're right about the Pittsburgh defense and running game, but nothing suggests to me that the Steelers should struggle here. Plus, I'm starting Mendenhall, so I need big production.
Pittsburgh -10.5
Dallas @ Kansas City (+9)
Lets face it, Dallas really isn't that good. They do have more rushing yards than any other team, and Kansas City has been pretty terrible against the run, giving up 120 yards per game. The Cowboys should be able to take care of business, and I am sticking with this OC firing thing for another week.
Cowboys -9
Perhaps a good thing to do, but I like the Chiefs at home with a lot of points behind them. Just a hunch.
KC +9
I think you are right here, I haven't totally made up my mind, but for now I'm sticking with the Cowboys.
Oakland @ New York Giants (-15)
Damn, the Giants finally get a legit line. They have the running game to extend leads, and the defense to make Jamarcus Russell look...well, bad. This line seems pretty huge considering they have only won by this much once, against Tampa who I actually think is worse than the Raiders. I feel like teams have tried to beat the Giants by stacking the line because they don't believe in their receivers, well that hasn't worked, so I wonder if the running game is bound to break out, and doesn't this feel like the game where Russell not only misses every receiver, but actually gives up lots of points to the defense? I dont know, it feels huge, but it also feels like they don't want us to bet on the Giants.
Giants -15
The Giants have been winning me money since week one - and I have them in the Super Bowl. I've got to ride the "bet NYG and the spread until they lose" wave like you're riding the OC firers.
Giants -15
Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5):
Speaking of the Bucs...I dont think any number is too big against them. The Bucs have given up 107 points in four games, and the QB that their head coach deemed a lifetime backup, is now their starter. Where is Jeff Garcia while all these terrible QBs are playing? Anyway, Philly will have no trouble scoring, no matter what they do. Oz and I could run the option against Tampa and I think we would score points. Springfield College could score points against this Bucs team. Do you get the point? Don't fire your OC during the preseason.
Eagles -14.5 (yes I am taking both of these huge lines, vegas is obviously scared of us doing so, so why not?)
We started a survivor pool at work and the Eagles are my first pick. I'm pretty happy about this selection, so obviously I don't think the Bucs are keeping it close. Philly has got McNabb coming back, so they might be a little conservative in play calling, especially since they're not playing a very good team.
Tampa Bay +14.5 (too high)
Wow, I hear you, though, it is a big line. The problem is this, how do the Bucs keep it within two touchdowns? We already know they have the worst pass and run defense, so it won't be with defense. So Philly plays conservative on offense and only scores 27, is the Philly defense going to give up 13 points to a team that scored 13 points in the last two weeks combined? Maybe. Philly won 38-10 and 34-14 in their two wins so far, and KC and Carolina both have better defenses than TB.
