Posted by Claytoris | 9/10/2009 12:20:00 PM | , | 1 comments »

Alright, that was getting really long, so I split it up into two parts...the rest of the games will be coming.

Minnesota
(-4) over CLEVELAND: One of the top defensive lines in the league against Brady Quinn. Also, the top player versus a terrible defense. I'm going to go on a limb here and take the Vikings and the points.

So we have Brett Favre in his first road game as a Viking. The Browns have been a great cover team over the last couple of years, but I have no idea what to expect from them. They no longer have Kellen Winslow, Brady Quinn is capable, but definately not going to win the game for his team at this point, especially against the Minnesota defense. We all know Favre misses some receivers completely and proceeds to point to a spot on the field so that everyone at home knows it wasn't his fault. One of those may end up in the hands of the Cleveland defense, but I dont think the Browns offense will accomplish anything. This is probably something stupid like 13-3, but the Vikes should cover.

Vikings -4

Jacksonville (+7) over INDY: Why are people low on Jacksonville this year? I guess they could go either way, but the Colts with a new coach are tough to bet on against an established team. I know they still have Peyton Manning, but I don't really trust the running game right now. The Jags could win straight up.

I agree with you here. The Colts are hard to bet against, but their home field advantage is kind of gone with the new stadium, and the Jags definately have something to prove. Injuries on the Oline just killed the season last year, and JD always dominates the Colts. They dont have Bob Sanders, and I think this is too many points between teams that I think are pretty close to even.

Jags +7

NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Detroit: C'mon. They Lions haven't won a regular season game since what feels like the beginning of Bush's second term in office. We should ride the wave until it ends. The Saints can score a lot. The Lions? Not so much.

The Lions are starting a rookie QB that everyone described as not being ready to be an NFL starter when he was coming out of college. Not to say he won't be good, but just that he isn't ready yet. He is on arguably the worst team in the history of the NFL playing on the road in a dome for his first game ever even on the field in an NFL game. The Saints are still going to have trouble on the defensive end, but they should do enough here right? I mean the offense should dominate. I don't think Pierre Thomas is playing, but even Mike Bell should have no trouble (assuming Reggie Bush blows out his knee on the first play) and Brees will have fun. I am tempted to take the Lions, but I can't do it. I won't bet this line, but given the choice, I am taking the team that won at least one game last year.

Saints -13

TAMPA BAY (+5) over Dallas: Five points at home? Seriously?

Well we all know that home field advantage is mostly gone. Tampa has had a weird offseason. They have a new coach, three starting running backs, and they fired their OC a week before the season. I don't know or care who their QB is, but I feel pretty confident that they will not be very successful on the offensive side of the ball. The Dallas D is not that special to me, but I dont think they have to do much besides stack the box. I just bet on the under for Dallas wins at 9, so I am clearly not that high on them, but I just think Tampa has some trouble getting started. This could be ugly and end up closer than 5, but I think the odds of a Dallas blow out are more likely than a Tampa win, and after last year, I am no longer giving the home field edge to any team not in Seattle, Denver, or Kansas City. I am sure there are more, but thats all I get off the top of my head. Oh yeah, Carolina was money at home last year, and we will get to that shortly.

Dallas -5

Philly -2 over CAROLINA: Just put eleven guys in the box. Who is going to beat you, Jake Delhomme?

I don't get what all the fuss is about Philly this year. I personally loaded up on the under for wins. They have had a great defense over the years, and not because of the players, but the schemes. It isn't a defensive philosophy, it was the play calling, and their defensive coordinator is dead. I think this is huge, and no one seems to care. McNabb is a stud, but his number two receiver is Kevin Curtis, and Westbrook may or may not be healthy. I don't think Philly is going to be terrible, but 10 wins is a stretch in that division, and this is a game on the road against a team that went undefeated at home last year. True, Delhomme's last game was possibly the worst ever by a starting QB, but they do still have the best running game in the NFL, and a strong defense. Did I mention they went undefeated in the regular season at home last year?

Carolina +2

1 comments

  1. 12step // September 10, 2009 at 1:16 PM  

    http://12stepdrop.com/2009/09/10/pierre-thomas-preparing-to-pla/

    Pierre Thomas: "I am peparing for the Lions on Sunday and waiting for the thumbs up from the Saints. Who Dat ready to ROCK THE DOME!!"