NFL Week 1 Picks part 3

Posted by Claytoris | 9/10/2009 04:08:00 PM | , | 0 comments »

Kansas City (+13) over BALTIMORE: Baltimore will win this game, but when have they ever been a team to win by double digits?

This is a tough pick. Kansas City looked like a team going in the right direction at the end of last year. Their record was terrible, but they were in every game. Then they got rid of Tony Gonzales which says "we are building for the future," but then they went for Matt Cassel which says the opposite. Either way, with Cassel not 100% and a pretty crappy O-line, you think Baltimore defense will have no trouble. That's probably true. The Baltimore offense looked much improved last year, and Flacco should only get better, right? Probably, but this is a huge spread for a team that sometimes has trouble moving the ball against a team we don't know yet what to expect. They were good at covering last year, and I think they probably cover this big number. I think this opened around 8.5, which would have been tasty, but I think its too high now.

Kansas City +13

HOUSTON (-4.5) over NYJ: Did we pick this already? I forget. I know Houston is the sexy pick this year, but I like the Texans here. They've got a better than average pass rush and an explosive offense. I can see them winning 20-10 here, couldn't you?
The Jets may be good just from their defense and a solid running game, but I won't buy it until I see it. The Texans look like they are ready to make the jump this year, with a high flying offense (when Schaub and Johnson are healthy-which they are) and a defense that keeps getting stronger. The Jets have a rookie QB, an aging running back, a new head coach, and a rebuilt defense that we haven't seen yet. That's too many question marks for a road game in week one. Houston -4.5

ARIZONA (-6.5) over San Francisco: I wouldn't bet this ever. I hate the NFC West. If this were 7 points, I may go the other way. I like the half point. Speaking of which, let's think about three team teasers because I have nothing to add here: Pitt (+1), KC (+16.5), Jax (+13)? What about NO (-7), NE (-4.5), SD (-3)?
This is a coin toss for me, I have changed my mind three times. I feel like the Niners are a sleeper pick every single year, and it just hasn't happened. They played well with Shaun Hill down the stretch, but they only beat bad teams. I am on the side that thinks Arizona does not repeat the same success, but healthy, they are better than San Fran, right? Either way, if SF is a little better this year and Arizona is a little worse, then the fact that San Francisco barely lost on the road last year, you gotta take the points. Right? San Francisco +6.5

Washington (+6.5) over NYG: I think the Giants could be the NFC Champs. The Redskins are good and it's a divisional game. Should be a close one. I've gone back and forth here, but this is what I'm sticking with.

This line actually moved up from 6, and buying a half a point seems worthwhile to me. I think Washington may be a bit suprising this year, if Portis stays healthy. They have a strong defense, a strong running game, and a QB that is capable enough to not blow it himself. This was the opening game last year, and Washington put up a good fight. I think the Giants offense will struggle with their current receiving core because, lets face it, Eli Manning really isn't that good. I like this as a nice upset win for Washington, but even if they don't win, I think its a tight game. Washington +6.5

SEATTLE (-7.5) over St. Louis: Seattle is going to be a major improvement this year. I say they make that statement over a terrible division foe.

Agreed, Seattle was ruined by injuries last year, and they added one of the best receivers in the league. St Louis did nothing to improve, this is a blowout in one of the remaining true home field advantage stadiums. Seattle -7.5

GREEN BAY (-3.5) over Chicago: I love this game, but I hate this line. Both teams are Super Bowl contenders, seriously. Whoever wins this game moves up at least three points in the Power Rankings on ESPN and every major sports website.

What a great game for the first weekend. I agree that these are both contenders, however, one has a new QB, so until I see the offense flowing, I won't bet on them to win on the road over a very good defense, and offense for that matter. I think Ryan Grant bounces back this year, though it won't necessarily be in this game, haha. Green Bay -3.5

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over Buffalo: Is anyone else terrified for the Bills? It's not that Tom Brady is back, but it's because Tom Brady has something to prove. If Randy Moss doesn't catch at least two touchdowns, I'll be shocked.
Blowout city. The Bills are going to be terrible. They did ok, against poor competition last year, but this offense is already struggling, and just like Tampa, I can't be on a team that fired their OC a week before the season. Patriots games will be overs a lot this year, because that offense will be insane and the defense scares no one. This one may not go over because Buffalo sucks. Brady does have something to prove, and I do think they score lots. Patriots -10.5 or 15 if it gets that high

San Diego (-9) over OAKLAND: Do you think Tom Cable will punch another assistant when LT scores five times on Monday Night?

Yeah, not much to say here either. The Chargers own Oakland (not like thats something to brag about) and LT dominates every time. This time he has a chip on his shoulder because everyone says he is done. I don't think so, and I know he doesn't so he has something to prove. Chargers ROLL. Chargers -9