NFL Week 1 Picks

Posted by Claytoris | 9/10/2009 12:16:00 PM | , | 0 comments »

Yeah, he'll be missed
I am new to this blog, so anyone reading will be new to this column. Every week Oz and I go through every NFL game and write up a bit about who we think will cover the spread. We try to get it out as early in the week as possible, but no guarantees, except that they will be posted before the game starts.

Hope you enjoy, love to hear what you think.

This first post is for tonights game, and our first crack at Sunday's games, the rest will come later today or tomorrow morning. Oz is first in black here.

PITT (-5) over Tennessee: I believe this is the exact line, or at least was on Tuesday. Tough to bet against a team that's about to see their banner erected in their own stadium. Should be a low-scoring affaird, but the Steelers should win by a touchdown.

Actually, you nailed this line, it opened up at 5, but has since moved to -6 or -6.5 depending on where you get it. I don't think Tennessee repeats the success they had last year, and I have trouble finding a reason Pittsburgh wouldn't repeat, especially considering they did most of it without their two best running backs last year. The only thing that could hold them down is themselves if they get complacent after winning the big one. I don't think they do, they are good, and what they did last year was with the hardest schedule in the league. Tenn can't say the same. Pitt wins this, and should cover. The Titans got a lot of breaks and won a lot of close games last year. This year, I don't think they are as lucky, and I dont think Kerry Collins is going to continue this late career turnaround. No Albert Haynesworth and no Jim Schwartz (last year's Def Coordinator) and this team drops off.

Pittsburgh -6.5

Miami (+4) over ATLANTA: I'm not buying into the Falcons just yet. They played a really soft schedule last year. Miami, people are forgetting, is pretty good. If they can stay healthy, they will just miss the playoffs.

See I am not buying into either of these teams. Miami won a few games with the wildcat before it got figured out, and then they won a crappy division. Both teams won their divisions because they had easy schedules. I do think Miami will prove to be the better team, because we know they will play tough defense and should be able to run. Atlanta will have a good offense, but not like last year, and their defense is suspect. I wouldn't take Miami as a favorite here, but getting more than 3, I like.

Dolphins +4

CINCY (-4) over Denver: Denver stinks. My buddy picked Kyle Orton in his fantasy draft last night and I haven't stopped ridiculing him. That's indicative of what's going to happen in the Mile High City this year. Don't get excited, Cincy. You won't win more than six games this year.

Denver is so tough for me to figure out. Orton was bad in Chicago, but it wasn't a passing team, and he didn't have near the talent at WR that he has now. The defense was terrible last year, and did little to improve, so I can't see them winning too many games behind the offense and Kyle Orton, however, I do actually think he will be a solid fantasy QB, and possibly, a decent part of the team. Don't forget that Cutler threw picks left and right last year, so he doesn't have to do much to improve on that. Josh McDaniels is shaking up too much for my taste. I think he is putting a lot of pressure on himself to win with all the dust he has kicked up, and we all should know by now that being a product of Belichick's does not automatically lead to success. I dont even want to get started on Brandon Marshall, so lets move on. The Bengals are this year's "Hard Knocks" team, and that hasn't worked out for anyone yet. Housh is gone, Chris Henry is back, and the defense is crap again. They are being touted as a sexy sleeper, but I think they stink. Their running game will suck, and they passing game will suffer. I mean, seriously, when was the last time Cincy was a home favorite by this many points?

Broncos +4