NFL Week 3 picks part 1

Posted by Claytoris | 9/24/2009 01:27:00 PM | , | 0 comments »

NYJ (-3) over Tennessee: The Titans looked tough against the Steelers, but gave up 34 to the Texans. They're just an anomaly right now. I'll take the home team, but don't think I'm not tempted at the +130 money line on the Titans on a ML parlay.

I am wary here because the Titans desperately need a win, and the Jets are setup perfectly for a let down game here. However, the Jets have looked amazing, and the Titans less so. I guess its actaully a solid matchup for the Titans, though, because the Jets strength seems to the passing game because they can matchup with the best receivers in the world one on one and beat you elsewhere, that's not an issue here. Also, the titans have been beaten in the passing game, and that is not the Jets strenght. I am going the letdown theory here.

Titans +3

HOUSTON (-4) over Jacksonville: Both teams are tough to figure out. Actually, all of the teams in that division are tough to figure out. Steve Slaton, my keeper, has 37 yards rushing this season. No wonder I'm in second to last place.

I don't necessarily think these teams are hard to figure out. I think that Jacksonville is terrible, and Houston is good. The Jets defense is very good, and that's why Houston had a rough time in week one. I think this one is easy.

Houston -4

Cleveland (+13) over BALTIMORE: Double-digit spreads are pretty easy to stay away from for me as far as taking the favorites. It's professional sports. If you're getting beaten by two scores, get off the field. I really like this as a +19 teaser.

The problem with that theory is that the Browns have lost by a combined 35 points in their two games, which is an average of 17.5 per game. Baltimore has a better offense and defense than the Broncos who last week beat the Browns 27-6.

Baltimore -13

Giants (-7) over TAMPA BAY: Hasn't Tampa Bay gotten pretty much shat on twice? This is the game, I hope, Brandon Jacobs comes to play. He hasn't hit paydirt once, and why not do it against the team that is gunning for the top pick in next year's draft. Byron Leftwich is their quarterback.

The Bucks are horrendous, and I don't really understand this line. The Cowboys beat Tampa by 13 in Florida, and the Giants just beat Dallas in their own stadium. I think the Bucs may have this years worst defense and possibly next years number one pick.

Giants -7 with confidence

DETROIT (+6.5) over Washington: They're going to get me a payday, yet.

Hahahahha, I don't here. The Redskins barely won at home vs possibly a worse team than the Lions. At the same time, I can't remember when I last saw the Lions getting less than 7 points and thinking about taking them. I will not touch this game with any money, including washington in a survivor pool. Lions may get their first win since Dec 23, 2007.

Lions +6.5

Green Bay (-6.5) over ST. LOUIS: I should pick the Rams out of spite because the Packers cost me a parlay last week because they were awful at home. How can a team look so good in week one, then put up a shitter in their home opener? Here's thinking they rebound.

I think they rebound too. The Bengals are a much better team than the Rams, and this line is a reflection only on these two teams' results from last week.

Packers -6.5

San Francisco (+7) over MINNESOTA: The 49ers are showing some heart this year. They're a likable squad. They could be 2-0. How hurt is Peterson? I don't really know, but I'm willing to say Favre shows the Vikings fans what they're getting themselves into this week.

Damn, I was hoping to be opposite you here, because I love the Niners. I wouldn't put my bank roll on them, but Minn so far has played Cle and Detroit, so they haven't seen anything yet. The Niners are playing solid defense and they have a QB that can win. I think this is a low scoring affair, and 7 in too many points.

San Francisco +7