Week 5 NFL Picks

Posted by Claytoris | 10/08/2009 08:25:00 AM | , | 1 comments »

Here we go, its week 5, and Oz and I are running through each NFL game to pick the winners against the spread.

I am in Black this week and Oz is in Blue.

Yes, sir, another week of NFL football. A side note: as much crap as I talk about baseball, I love playoff baseball. Good times. One caveat: I'm sick, so I won't be spending much time agonizing over writing something substantial. Sorry everyone.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9):
I like this game for two reason, well actually three. First of all, the Ravens are overrated. For two or three weeks now everyone has been talking them up like the best team in the league. We all know now that the Chargers aren't really that good, so who did they beat? Kansas City, Cleveland and Atlanta. Their defense is not very good, but everyone gives them the benefit of the doubt because they used to be good. I complained about this last week and was right when the Patriots won. When a team is overrated, their lines are inflated. At the same time, the Bengals are probably a bit underrated because they have been so bad for so long. The third reason seems to be escaping me, we will come back.

Bengals +9

The Ravens are good, but they're still getting too much credit for what they did in weeks 1-3. The Bengals are better than people think. That being said, they're not that good.

Bengals +9

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-6):
Gross, just gross. Who wants to watch this game? I dont even know what to say here except both teams suck, and I would normally bet against a team that I consider the worst team in the league that already traded away a star player, but they are playing one of those "lets fire our OC a week before the season" teams and I feel like teams always bounce back after losing a Braylen Edwards type guy. He was the big name that dropped a bunch of shit and probably brought everyone down. I don't care if they even play this game, let alone who wins. What I care about is the fact that Braylen tried to punch Lebron's friend, Cleveland is getting revenge.

Browns +6

The Bills suck, but the Browns are far below them in the worst team in the league category. They're demoralized. They blow. They have no weapons on offense and no one likes their own coach.

BUFFALO -6

Thats a good point, I would change, but I just have a feeling here.

Washington @ Carolina (-3.5):
Is Washington as bad as we think? Clinton Portis is apparently not on the injury report which would suggest he is more healthy than before. Meanwhile, I have picked the Panthers every week and lost, which usually means I would finally pick against them in their first cover. Not this time, the Panthers SHOULD be the better team here, especially at home where they went 8-0 last year. No one expects shit out of them, so they have nothing to lose...except the game itself.

Panthers -3.5

Did the schedule makers decide that there weren't going to be any interesting games this weekend, or are there just that many bad teams in the NFL? I'll take a shot on a healthy Portis.

Washington +3.5

Both, its funny you say this here, because they don't get any better, I think there are a total of two interesting games this week, NE vs Denver and Baltimore vs Cincy (thats terrible that this is one of the only two interesting games)

Pittsburgh @ Detroit (+10.5)
Pittsburgh is good, and everyone gave up on them too fast after two straight losses. Their defense is not the same without Polamalu, and I am not convinced their running game is ok just because they ran all over the Chargers. However, Detriot is not good. Kevin Smith, Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson are all questionable. Chances are they all play, but they aren't practicing hard, and its not exactly like they are all vets used to playing with each other. The Steelers have something to prove, less than last week, but hopefully they learned their lesson at Cincy. The Lions have lost by 18, 14 and 24 so far, why can't the Steelers do that? Detroit is overrated because they finally won...really, I did just say the Lions are overrated, bet you never thought you would hear that.

Pittsburgh -10.5

The Lions are so overrated that they're underrated. What? That doesn't even make any sense. You're right about the Pittsburgh defense and running game, but nothing suggests to me that the Steelers should struggle here. Plus, I'm starting Mendenhall, so I need big production.

Pittsburgh -10.5

Dallas @ Kansas City (+9)
Lets face it, Dallas really isn't that good. They do have more rushing yards than any other team, and Kansas City has been pretty terrible against the run, giving up 120 yards per game. The Cowboys should be able to take care of business, and I am sticking with this OC firing thing for another week.

Cowboys -9

Perhaps a good thing to do, but I like the Chiefs at home with a lot of points behind them. Just a hunch.

KC +9

I think you are right here, I haven't totally made up my mind, but for now I'm sticking with the Cowboys.

Oakland @ New York Giants (-15)
Damn, the Giants finally get a legit line. They have the running game to extend leads, and the defense to make Jamarcus Russell look...well, bad. This line seems pretty huge considering they have only won by this much once, against Tampa who I actually think is worse than the Raiders. I feel like teams have tried to beat the Giants by stacking the line because they don't believe in their receivers, well that hasn't worked, so I wonder if the running game is bound to break out, and doesn't this feel like the game where Russell not only misses every receiver, but actually gives up lots of points to the defense? I dont know, it feels huge, but it also feels like they don't want us to bet on the Giants.

Giants -15

The Giants have been winning me money since week one - and I have them in the Super Bowl. I've got to ride the "bet NYG and the spread until they lose" wave like you're riding the OC firers.

Giants -15

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia (-14.5):
Speaking of the Bucs...I dont think any number is too big against them. The Bucs have given up 107 points in four games, and the QB that their head coach deemed a lifetime backup, is now their starter. Where is Jeff Garcia while all these terrible QBs are playing? Anyway, Philly will have no trouble scoring, no matter what they do. Oz and I could run the option against Tampa and I think we would score points. Springfield College could score points against this Bucs team. Do you get the point? Don't fire your OC during the preseason.

Eagles -14.5 (yes I am taking both of these huge lines, vegas is obviously scared of us doing so, so why not?)

We started a survivor pool at work and the Eagles are my first pick. I'm pretty happy about this selection, so obviously I don't think the Bucs are keeping it close. Philly has got McNabb coming back, so they might be a little conservative in play calling, especially since they're not playing a very good team.

Tampa Bay +14.5 (too high)

Wow, I hear you, though, it is a big line. The problem is this, how do the Bucs keep it within two touchdowns? We already know they have the worst pass and run defense, so it won't be with defense. So Philly plays conservative on offense and only scores 27, is the Philly defense going to give up 13 points to a team that scored 13 points in the last two weeks combined? Maybe. Philly won 38-10 and 34-14 in their two wins so far, and KC and Carolina both have better defenses than TB.

1 comments

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