Lets Do The Math

Posted by Claytoris | 1/13/2010 08:26:00 AM | | 0 comments »

I was charged with writing a post about the most intriguing stat for this week’s upcoming Divisional Playoff game. However, that just doesn’t satisfy my appetite, and probably not yours, so I decided to stretch that out. I thought about the Union Tribune and their “By the Numbers” column they do every day and thought I would work with that and my CPA side. Today we are going to be doing the math on the Chargers vs Jets matchup.

1 – This is the number of players Darrel Revis can cover on any given play. That may be enough to shut down some passing teams, but not the Chargers. If he is covering Vincent Jackson as everyone expects, that still leaves the deep threat in Malcolm Floyd, and Antonio Gates in the middle of the field.

13.3 – Chargers yards per catch, which is the best in the NFL. Granted, the Jets have the top pass defense in the NFL, but they do this with constant blitzing with the support of Revis shutting down the top receiver on each team. The Chargers meanwhile, have done a tremendous job of picking up blitzes, and the best way to beat a blitzing team is to go deep, or hit the screen. The Chargers not only boast the best yards per catch in the league, but they have Darren Sproles and Ladanian Tomlinson who excel at screen plays.

10 – Chargers turnover differential, also top in the AFC.

-2 – The jets turnover differential, and no matter how good Mark Sanchez looked last week with his 15 pass attempts, he will be asked to do more this week. I am impressed with his performance in his first playoff game, but the odds are against him to do it again.

41.1 – The difference between the Charger’s passer rating (103.1) and the Jets (62). The Jets have the 31st ranked passing attack in the NFL. That equals one dimensional offense, which is not the name of the game anymore. The creed used to be, defense and a run game wins in the playoffs, but now it is balanced offense. The Chargers run defense has been less than stellar, but it hasn’t been the one dimensional offenses that beat the Chargers. They will make sure the Jets won’t be in a position to win if Sanchez only throws the ball 15 times.

-35 – The number of sacks the Chargers defense recorded, 10th in the NFL. That includes 32 over the last 13 games.

That all adds up to 28.4, which is the Chargers average points per game. I don’t know if they get there this week, but they will have enough offense to beat a Jets team that can struggle to put points on the board.